Pakistan on Track to Meet IMF Criteria Ahead of Review: Topline

Pakistan is expected to meet all seven performance criteria set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its upcoming review, paving the way for approval of a $1 billion tranche, according to a report by Topline Securities.

An IMF team is scheduled to visit Pakistan on September 25, 2025, for the second semi-annual review under the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

Key Highlights

• Performance Criteria: Targets for net international reserves, SWAP positions, and primary balance appear on track.
• Previous Disbursements: Pakistan has already secured over $2 billion in two earlier instalments.
• MoF Position: The Finance Ministry has not formally confirmed the IMF mission’s arrival, but discussions are underway.
• SBP Readiness: The central bank says it is ready to present its performance, though full data on guarantees is awaited.

Flood Impact on Economy

The review will also factor in the devastating flash floods, which have killed nearly 1,000 people and destroyed crops and livestock across Punjab, now moving into Sindh.

• GDP growth is expected to be revised down to 3% from 4%.
• Inflation may climb to 8%.
• FBR tax target could be adjusted to Rs13.7–13.9 trillion.

Topline noted that the review will be “critical” in shaping Pakistan’s fiscal path amid natural disaster challenges. A consensus is expected between the IMF and government on revised projections to balance recovery needs with reform commitments.

Successful completion of the review will unlock much-needed financing and reinforce confidence in Pakistan’s economic stability.

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