KARACHI — Pakistan’s key industrial barometers—cement and petroleum—showed significant growth in January 2026, signaling a steady economic recovery driven by easing inflation, improved infrastructure activity, and a successful crackdown on smuggling.
Cement: Export Rebound and Regional Disparities
Total cement despatches jumped 12.54% year-on-year in January, reaching 4.538 million tonnes.
- Local Demand: Domestic sales grew by 4.36%, totaling 3.601 million tonnes. Analysts point to a low baseline from 2025 and a gradual uptick in construction projects as primary drivers.
- Export Explosion: Cement exports surged by a massive 79.4% to 937,097 tonnes.
- The “North-South” Divide: * South-based Mills: Powered the export boom through sea-borne shipments.
- North-based Mills: Recorded zero exports for the month due to persistent political instability and border disruptions along the Afghan frontier.
- 7-Month Outlook (7MFY26): Cumulative despatches reached 30.583 million tonnes, a 10.58% increase compared to the previous fiscal year.
Oil Sales: A 10% Year-on-Year Growth
Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) reported sales of 1.52 million tonnes in January, reflecting a 10% increase from last year and a 12% rise from December 2025.
Key Drivers of the Oil Surge:
- Lower Prices: Reductions in petrol (MS) and high-speed diesel (HSD) prices in January incentivized consumption.
- Strike Recovery: December 2025 saw a nationwide strike that lasted nearly 10 days, creating a “low base” that made January’s month-on-month growth appear more pronounced.
- Anti-Smuggling Success: Improved border controls significantly reduced the flow of illegal Iranian fuel, pushing consumers back toward formal retail channels.
Product Breakdown (January 2026)
| Fuel Type | Sales Volume | YoY Change | MoM Change |
| High-Speed Diesel (HSD) | 664,000 tonnes | +11% | +20% |
| Petrol (Motor Spirit) | 641,000 tonnes | +3% | +2% |
| Furnace Oil (FO) | 102,000 tonnes | +76% | +76% |
Note: Furnace Oil sales hit a seven-month high, largely due to increased demand for FO-based power generation during the peak winter months.
Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has revealed that petrol being purchased from Iran at around Rs 40 per litre is alle_gedly being sold in Karachi for as much as Rs 200 per litre.
The statement has spa_rked serious questions about il_legal fuel trade, profiteering, and weak… pic.twitter.com/ycKG5nrIaS
— Startup Pakistan (@PakStartup) February 2, 2026
Market Leaders and Forecast
- Pakistan State Oil (PSO): Maintained its dominance with a 17% MoM increase in sales, capturing nearly 43% of the HSD market.
- Attock Petroleum (APL): Saw a 31% MoM surge, primarily driven by its strong position in the furnace oil segment.
- Future Outlook: Analysts from Topline Securities forecast that oil sales for the full fiscal year (FY26) will grow in the range of 7–10% if macroeconomic stability persists.
The government has already collected 59% of its annual Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) target.
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