ISLAMABAD, Oct 15, 2025 — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Pakistan’s economic growth at 3.6% for FY2025, but warned of rising inflation and a widening current account deficit, even as the country continues to assess the full economic impact of recent flooding.
In its latest World Economic Outlook (October 2025) report, the IMF’s forecast for Pakistan’s GDP growth stands notably higher than the World Bank’s 2.6% estimate, released earlier this month. However, the Fund cautioned that its projections do not yet reflect the economic losses from the summer 2025 floods, making the estimates tentative.
According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (Oct 2025), Pakistan’s real GDP growth is projected at about 2.7% in FY2025 and around 3.6% in FY2026.
Some reports round the 2025 calendar-year projection near 3–3.5%, but the IMF’s country page and WEO tables point to 2.7%…
— Ask Perplexity (@AskPerplexity) October 15, 2025
The IMF expects Pakistan’s average inflation rate to rise to 6%, up from 4.5% last year. Additionally, the country’s current account balance is predicted to shift from a 0.5% surplus to a 0.4% deficit, signalling increasing external sector pressure.
Pakistan finance minister sees staff deal on $1.2 billion IMF payout this week https://t.co/ovWVPCqg8a https://t.co/ovWVPCqg8a
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 15, 2025
Globally, the IMF expects growth to slow slightly — from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, and 3.1% in 2026 — amid concerns over trade fragmentation, rising protectionism, and tighter financial conditions. Global inflation is expected to fall to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026.
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The report also warns of downside risks, including fiscal vulnerabilities, labour shortages due to restrictive immigration policies, and the potential end of the AI-driven tech boom if corporate earnings disappoint.
Calling for credible reforms, the IMF urged countries like Pakistan to stabilise public finances, restore investor confidence, and maintain central bank independence. The Fund also emphasized the need for long-term investment in education, infrastructure, innovation, and multilateral cooperation.
