The AUKUS security is the largest geopolitical realignment in Indo-Pacific since the Cold War. It was established in 2021 and consists of the US, Australia, and the UK. The deal involves offering Australia nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) to counter Chinese maritime ambitions. The project has been Australia’s largest defense project, with a commitment of A$368 billion ($240 billion) over a 30-year period. The alliance facilitates a Western-dominated anti-Chinese course of action.
AUKUS shifts the balance of power in the Region because Pakistan is situated in a strategic position in the Indian Ocean Region. It enhances the US strategic interests in India and accelerates the process of naval nuclearization around the waters of Pakistan. This discussion will examine the structure of AUKUS, the reasons behind its formation, and its implications for Pakistan’s security and policy decisions.
AUKUS Mechanics: Architecture of Containment
The transfer of the U.S. Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the 2030s is the central aspect of the pact. Australia and the UK will jointly design the new SSN-AUKUS submarines by the 2040s. Those submarines will provide Australia with next-gen levels of stealth, long-range capabilities, and blunt raw hitting power. They are intended to neutralize the Chinese anti-access/area denial strategy, particularly in the South China Sea.
Source: USNI News
The UK has announced the construction of 12 SSN-AUKUS submarines. Depending on the number of Virginia-class submarines they procure, Australia is supposed to run approximately eight submarines. A key condition is that U.S. presidents must certify that these transfers won’t weaken America’s submarine force, a tough task given current U.S. submarine shortages.
Pillar System
AUKUS is run under two pillars. Pillar I is concerned with the technological transfer of nuclear submarines and submarine co-production. Pillar II entails cooperation on high-tech developments, including hypersonic weapons, quantum computing, and undersea drones.
Pillar I is in effect in the July 2025 UK-Australia Nuclear-Powered Submarine Partnership and Collaboration Treaty, also referred to as the Geelong Treaty. Under this 50-year pact, there is potential for deep cooperation on the design, construction, maintenance, and disposal of submarines. It also involves UK regular submarine rotations at the HMAS Stirling naval base in Western Australia.
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U.S. Review: The Trump America-First challenge
In June 2025, AUKUS was formally reviewed by the Trump administration. Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby leads the review. Colby is openly suspicious of the pact. He is skeptical of why the U.S. wants to send a limited number of its submarines when the American fleet is still 25 percent short of its targets. Colby calls for an empirical and realistic look at AUKUS. The idea is to determine whether it serves America’s first priorities. This review casts a serious doubt on the future of the pact.
Source: X/ElbridgeColby
The review is taking place under severe manufacturing constraints. Only 1.3 attack submarines are built in U.S. shipyards on an annual basis. This is less than half of the 2.2 to 2.3 submarines required per year to satisfy both U.S. and AUKUS requirements. These limits place further strains on the pact’s viability.
Source: news.com.au
The Pakistani Dilemma of Regional Changes and Tactics
The AUKUS-Quad nexus presents an increasingly serious strategic challenge for Pakistan. Both systems aim to contain China while simultaneously bolstering Indian regional dominance. Islamabad-based analysts note that through its Quad membership, India is positioning itself as the primary security provider in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy fully supports this role. This scenario introduces three major threats to Pakistan:
- India has access to advanced Western technology, which enhances its capabilities in underwater warfare. This threatens to weaken Pakistan’s traditional naval strength.
- Joint AUKUS-Quad activities, including large-scale Talisman Sabre exercises with 40,000 troops from 19 countries, are making a foreign military presence near Pakistan’s coast seem normal.
- The deployment of nuclear-armed submarines (SSNs) could reduce Pakistan’s second-strike capability, undermining its nuclear deterrence. China views AUKUS as a NATO-style model in Asia and fears it could trigger an arms race in the region.
China’s Countermeasures and Pakistani Alignments
In September 2021, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson explicitly criticized the pact as “highly irresponsible,” warning that AUKUS “intensifies the arms race” and damages regional stability. Beijing has responded with countermeasures on various levels. Diplomatically, China is positioning itself as a regional peacemaker, as evident in its efforts to reconcile Iran and Saudi Arabia. Strategically, China has invested in infrastructure, particularly Pakistani ports like Gwadar, to increase its surveillance and influence in the Indian Ocean.
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For Pakistan, AUKUS underscores the need for greater cooperation with China. However, Islamabad has also recognized that relying solely on one ally is risky, prompting it to adopt a more balanced and multifaceted policy to protect its national interests amid shifting regional dynamics.
Conclusion
The AUKUS pact reflects the West’s intent to contain China through military and technological alliances. For Australia and the UK, it offers stronger deterrence and opportunities for industrial growth. However, it also risks drawing them deeper into U.S.-China tensions. For Pakistan, the pact increases its vulnerability. India’s naval build-up and the growing presence of major powers in the Indian Ocean pose serious threats.
Still, AUKUS is not without flaws. U.S. industrial limitations, contradictions on non-proliferation, and a lack of strategic clarity create diplomatic space for Pakistan. Islamabad can use this moment to deepen its ties with China while promoting nuclear restraint in the region. By avoiding bloc politics and engaging in smart diplomacy, Pakistan can manage the risks. The next decade will reveal whether middle powers like Pakistan can shape the future of undersea warfare before the oceans turn into a new front in superpower rivalry.
